One of the main drivers of optimism is the renewed momentum in US/China trade talks. The first day of the second round of negotiations reportedly went relatively well. There hasn’t been a breakthrough yet, and the talks in London continue today. Still, rumours are circulating that the US may be willing to make concessions on tech exports in exchange for China easing restrictions on rare earth metal exports.

VanEck’s Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF rose another 2.8% on Monday. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index looks poised to retest its March peak, with potential to extend gains if trade news is supportive. The index still trades at a 22% discount to its 2021 peak and 27% below its 2018 high, leaving ample room for upside.

In energy markets, trade optimism is helping US crude break through a key Fibonacci support level. The barrel is edging above the $65.35 mark, representing the 38.2% retracement of this year’s rally. A sustained move above this level could signal the start of a medium-term bullish consolidation, with potential to push toward $68. However, higher supply could eventually cap gains near the $68–$70 range.

By contrast, traditional safe havens such as gold and the Swiss franc are softer, while the US dollar is better bid in Asia. The EURUSD has dipped below the 1.14 mark, the USDJPY briefly traded above 145, while the trade- and China-sensitive Aussie dollar is holding above 65 cents. Progress in trade talks should support further risk-on sentiment. Any disappointment, however, could jolt markets.

The economic calendar is light in the US today, ahead of Wednesday’s crucial CPI release. As a result, markets will remain focused on trade developments. Importantly, positive trade headlines could help offset any negative surprises in tomorrow’s inflation print, which is expected to reflect mounting price pressures in the US—partly due to higher tariff-related costs.

The US 2-year yield is consolidating near 4%, while the 30-year yield is softer ahead of Thursday’s key auction. Whether the nearly 5% yield on 30-year paper attracts sufficient demand remains to be seen, particularly as many investors have shifted toward shorter maturities amid budget uncertainties. A weak auction could drive long-term borrowing costs higher and refocus attention on ballooning US debt. That, in turn, could renew demand for alternatives—even in a risk-on environment.

Gold is one such alternative, but investor interest in precious metals is now extending beyond gold. Silver and platinum have both seen impressive rallies. Platinum is up around 15% so far this month, and more than 30% since April. Gold’s strength is certainly a tailwind for sister metals like silver and platinum—platinum ETFs saw a 300% year-over-year surge in investment demand in Q1.

But the story goes deeper. The platinum market remains tight, and a second consecutive annual deficit is expected. The World Platinum Investment Council forecasts a shortfall of nearly 1 million ounces this year. As a result, borrowing costs for the metal have surged above 13%—compared to a typical near-zero rate.

Meanwhile, demand continues to rise, particularly from hybrid car manufacturers who use platinum in catalytic converters. Jewellery demand is also increasing, as jewellers pivot away from expensive gold. At current levels, platinum still trades nearly 50% below its 2008 peak and may appeal to investors looking to diversify away from high-priced gold.

In equities, Apple unveiled its new “Liquid Glass” interface at its Worldwide Developers Conference, focusing on design rather than AI or core technology—another sign the company may be falling behind in the AI race. So far, Apple has been given breathing room, partly due to its brand power.

But a continued lack of innovation on the tech front could cost the company its leadership status, encouraging investors to rotate elsewhere. Apple shares have notably diverged from the rest of the so-called Magnificent Seven. Tech history is littered with fallen giants—Kodak and Nokia come to mind. Apple isn’t there yet, but it needs to act to stay in the top tier.

Elsewhere in tech, TSMC released its May sales figures this morning, reporting a strong 39.6% year-on-year gain. The stock rose in Taiwan on the news and may help lift Nvidia at the US open—especially amid hopes the US might relax certain chip export rules to China. Nvidia has had to halt shipments of China-specific chips due to those restrictions, so any progress on that front can’t come soon enough.