That’s how much the US tech sector and AI investments mask the ugly reality beneath the surface of the “Big, Beautiful” US economy — not even mentioning the ballooning US debt, racing toward the $40 trillion mark.

The US dollar is losing some of its global shine. The Chinese are trying to slow the yuan’s appreciation, while the Japanese are preparing for a rate hike this month despite the relentless rise in Japanese yields — now around 1.95% — which keeps threatening to pull Japanese capital back home.

The US 10-year yield is pushed higher by that repatriation risk even as Fed expectations soften. And if markets increasingly price in that the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) December hike won’t be its last, the Fed’s December cut could land lightly, especially if paired with cautious guidance.

Doves are counting on Trump and his future Fed picks to push rates lower come hell or high water, but if markets don’t buy the cuts, yields won’t fall far. And if investors conclude the US 10-year’s long-term “seat” is nearer 3% than 2%, the valuation impact could be meaningful. Tech stocks, for instance, could easily shed 20–30% on that single shift.

So, the hope is that the miserable labour data has a disinflationary impact on US consumer prices — despite tariffs — giving the Fed room to cut, and perhaps even revive QE next year.

The US dollar this morning is testing a critical Fibonacci support; if it breaks, the dollar may roll back into this year’s weakening trend. A softer dollar lifts equity valuations because foreign revenues translate into more dollars.

But that’s just an ephemeral layer of make-up for an economy that today relies less on consumer spending — once two-thirds of GDP — and more on AI investment, which is estimated to account for nearly half of this year’s GDP growth. And that’s not brilliant news.

Today’s PCE data will have little impact on expectations for next week’s Fed meeting. Both headline and core are expected to stick near 3%, but steady. Absent a shock, US equities likely finish the week on an upbeat note.

Tech appetite is running hot this morning after Moore Threads Technology surged near 500% on its Shanghai debut. Moore Threads is a young, ambitious company founded in 2020 by a former Nvidia executive, aiming to build a full-stack AI and graphics ecosystem from scratch: chips, cards, software, data-center hardware — everything.

Its MUSA architecture targets workloads from gaming graphics to AI training and high-performance computing, with the goal of becoming China’s Nvidia. It has government backing and, judging from the IPO, plenty of investor enthusiasm as well.

The rally could lift the Shanghai Composite today. As for Nvidia, will it react negatively — fearing another hit to its already shrinking China business — or positively, as a sign of red-hot AI appetite? We’ll see.

Elsewhere, crude oil is set to finish the week flat — curious, given there were several reasons to expect a rally.

One: OPEC confirmed last Sunday it will pause its supply-restoration strategy for the first three months of next year to put a floor under prices.

Two: the Trump administration softened its climate stance this week and approved the import of fuel-powered mini Japanese cars — apparently because Trump liked them — making them “safe enough” for US roads overnight.

Three: US-Russia talks yielded no progress. But none of these policy or geopolitical factors managed to lure buyers back in.

Other typically supportive drivers — a weaker dollar and softer Fed expectations that should boost growth bets — also failed to spark a rebound. WTI remains stuck below the 50-day moving average near $60pb, hugging the top of the August–November downtrend channel. The medium-term outlook remains timidly bearish.

Conversely, natural gas prices are rising on the back of broad global demand, on news that Europeans aim to reduce dependence on Russian gas sooner than planned amid dimming hopes for peace, and on the longer-term view that gas remains a politically and commercially viable “bridge fuel.”

Even with Washington’s U-turn on renewables, LNG exports, domestic gas-to-power projects, and petrochemicals remain growth areas. Gas allows traditional energy companies to run a dual strategy: maintain cash flow from oil and gas while positioning — even modestly — for the energy transition.

Rising gas prices are, in my view, what keep energy companies well-bid despite subdued oil prices. And while they may be “boring” compared with Big Tech, they will be providing the power needed to run an AI-driven world — and they offer dividends and buybacks that matter if inflation heats up.