Outlook 2026: Ralph Wessels (ABN AMRO)
This text was originally written in Dutch. This is an English translation.
By Ralph Wessels, Chief Investment Strategist, ABN AMRO
What is the economic outlook for 2026?
'Investors have plenty of reasons to be optimistic about 2026. Equities remain attractive. At the same time, trends such as deglobalisation, high valuations and ever-increasing debt mountains pose risks.
In a changing world, we expect the equity rally to continue in 2026. The main reason to remain positive on equities is that global economic growth will accelerate again. In addition, the fundamental picture remains positive, with double-digit earnings growth expected.
Within equities, we prefer the US. Growth there is at a higher level and the region is more dominant in the field of AI. We see more and more investment opportunities emerging for “agentic AI”.
In terms of equity sectors, we believe that the industrial sector will stand out due to investments in defence and infrastructure. We also remain enthusiastic about the financial services sector, which will benefit from economic recovery and a steeper yield curve.
We are neutral on bonds with a neutral duration. We believe that the ECB has completed its cycle of interest rate cuts and that the Fed will lower its policy rate to 3% in 2026. At the same time, we see long-term interest rates in Europe and the US rising slightly.
Within bonds, we still prefer high-quality bonds. Within that segment, we see more opportunities in covered bonds than in government bonds. We remain cautious on higher-yielding bonds because they are too expensive. Within this segment, we are neutral on EMD and negative on high yield.
Finally, we are positive on gold, as central banks are structurally buying more gold and we expect the pound sterling to weaken further in 2026.'
Global economic growth will accelerate again in 2026.