Outlook 2026: Sander van Ginkel (MN)
This text was originally written in Dutch. This is an English translation.
By Sander van Ginkel, Senior Investment Strategist, MN
What is the economic outlook for 2026?
'It is uncertain whether the Supreme Court or a new Congress after the midterm elections will rein in Trump. We also expect a great deal of uncertainty and policy volatility in 2026. More important is how this short-term turmoil will affect the long term. To monitor this, we use a set of scenarios based more on megatrends. In these scenarios, we look at the major potential systemic changes over a 10-year horizon:
- In the ‘End of American exceptionalism’ scenario, for example, the unique characteristics of the American economy and markets are systematically dismantled by Trumpian policies. The United States loses its lead in innovation, dynamism and profitability.
- In “From abundance to scarcity”, geostrategic goals prevail over economic ones. The global economy fragments, global supply chains are severed and nationalised, migration bans are introduced, and shortages arise on many fronts. This leads to stagflation.
- In the more positive scenario, ‘Europe takes up the gauntlet’, the old continent – under pressure from the new geopolitical reality – implements the Draghi report. European competitiveness and productivity accelerate. Europe becomes a more attractive location for talent and business and claims a greater geopolitical role as one of the world’s power centres in a multipolar world.
However, these scenarios are still too vague and are not our baseline expectation. In our baseline scenario, “Bend, don't break”, the global political, economic and financial order is under severe pressure, but survives by the skin of its teeth. Economic interests prevent further unravelling and mutual nuclear deterrence prevents a direct military clash between superpowers.'
Economic interests prevent further unravelling.