Outlook 2026: Joost van Leenders (Van Lanschot Kempen IM)
This text was originally written in Dutch. This is an English translation.
By Joost van Leenders, Senior Investment Strategist, Van Lanschot Kempen Investment Management
Where are the biggest opportunities and threats for 2026?
'Looking ahead to 2026, we see two key uncertainties: the volatile trade war and the rapid advance of artificial intelligence. The trade war remains a game of escalating tensions and temporary détente, with no clear end in sight. For the US, we foresee a slight slowdown in growth and upward pressure on inflation, while other regions remain relatively unaffected. At the same time, the AI revolution in the US is offsetting much of this negative effect. Although the current dynamics are reminiscent of a euphoric bubble phase, we believe that structural demand is strong enough to support investment and further stimulate growth.
In a resilient global economy, driven in Europe in 2026 mainly by gradually picking up consumption, we expect corporate profits to rise. This makes equities more attractive than bonds. US equities are pricey, but are benefiting from strong earnings momentum. Corporate bonds remain expensive due to low risk premiums. Within investment grade, we prefer the eurozone to the US. Here, we are counting on stable interest rates and a wait-and-see ECB. In the US, the Fed is likely to ease policy slightly, but we see upside potential for capital market interest rates due to sustained growth and high budget deficits.
In short: opportunities lie mainly in equities, with a selective view on valuation and region. Threats come from geopolitical friction and possible corrections in AI-related segments.'
The AI revolution is offsetting much of the negative impact of the trade war in the US.