Outlook 2026: Thomas van Galen (Achmea IM)
This text was originally written in Dutch. This is an English translation.
By Thomas van Galen, Chief Strategist, Achmea Investment Management
Where are the biggest opportunities and threats for 2026?
'The investment environment is currently defined by two harsh realities: inflation is structurally higher than in recent decades and geopolitical instability has returned as a permanent factor. This is not temporary noise, but the result of a world shifting towards a multipolar force field, in which economic blocs clash more often than they cooperate. In our Investment Outlook 2026, we show how five underlying transitions – geopolitical realignment, technological acceleration, demographic constraints, climate and energy transition, and high government debt – together form a new return regime that is putting pressure on the purchasing power of Dutch pension funds.
The need to achieve real returns therefore remains as great as ever, even now that nominal interest rates are higher. This calls for a clear reorientation of portfolios. Whereas the trend in recent years has been mainly towards passive and liquid investments, we now see a greater role for real assets, alternative credit and active investing. These categories offer access to illiquid premiums, protection against inflation and more stability in a more volatile environment.
Because equities are highly valued, we are first looking to broaden our range of alternative sources of return. Equities remain important for growth, but are no longer the only engine driving portfolios. Scenario thinking is key here: portfolios must be robust at the overall level under a variety of geopolitical, inflationary and growth path scenarios.
We also see the new regime reflected in currencies. A deliberately weaker dollar under Trump and structural vulnerabilities in the eurozone make traditional currency anchors less reliable. That is why we believe that stores of value such as gold are worth considering again.'
Those who want to perform well in times of transition should not invest based on how the world was, but on how it is becoming.